Buy the Dip Monday: 40% Drawdowns, 11% Earnings Yields, and Insider Net Buys

This Week's Setup

This week's value screen is about dislocation with numbers attached: an 11% earnings yield on a biodefense name after a 40% drawdown, a solar OEM growing revenue at 24% while off nearly a third from its peak, and a profitable biotech compounding 68% ROIC while the market prices single-digit growth.

The list averages a 24% drawdown against an 8.2% earnings yield, a combination that rewards stock-picking over index hedges when balance sheets and insider behavior line up.

The 8 Names

1. Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)

Stock Pixie Score 8.8/10 | P/E 8.98 | Earnings Yield 11.14% | 52-Week Drawdown -40.6%

The valuation is extreme: an 11.14% earnings yield on a company with 15.8% ROIC and a 53.7% gross margin. The Stock Pixie Score of 8.8/10 (a composite of valuation, income quality, and price recovery signals) reflects a setup where price has disconnected from operational output.

Revenue fell 30.4% year-over-year, a function of post-pandemic government contract timing rather than structural demand erosion. The EV/EBITDA of 3.89 suggests the market is pricing in prolonged weakness.

The U.S. government awarded Emergent over $60 million in new contracts for smallpox countermeasures, with an additional international partner order announced this month. Insider activity shows net selling of 48,191 shares over six months, but the dollar-weighted insider score of 4.83 reflects modest conviction.

The lack of reported FCF yield or book value in the data signals balance-sheet opacity. Investors need to confirm cash generation is aligned with the earnings figure before scaling in.

2. First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

Stock Pixie Score 8.5/10 | P/E 14.23 | Earnings Yield 7.03% | Revenue Growth +24.1% YoY

First Solar combines a 7.03% earnings yield with 24.1% revenue growth and 22.2% ROIC, a rare trifecta in a sector known for capital intensity. The 40.6% gross margin reflects pricing power in module supply, and the EV/EBITDA of 8.95 is compressed relative to the growth profile.

The stock is down 29.4% from its 52-week high. Guidance was recently weakened due to tariff review uncertainty reshaping production planning, and BMO Capital cut the target to $252 from $263. The yield spread of 4.35% above the 10-year Treasury is attractive, but execution risk remains elevated.

Insider activity over six months shows net selling of 2,878 shares, with 1.5% buying and 1.6% selling. The insider score of 5.00 suggests neutral positioning. No recent Form 4 filings in the last 30 days.

Tariff policy and international trade flows remain the primary risk. Any adverse ruling or extended review period compresses margin assumptions.

3. Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL)

Stock Pixie Score 7.4/10 | P/E 14.97 | Earnings Yield 6.68% | ROIC 68.5%

Exelixis posts a 68.5% ROIC and 96.4% gross margin, the kind of economics that typically command premium multiples. The earnings yield of 6.68% is 4.35% above the 10-year Treasury, and the EV/EBITDA of 10.70 is reasonable for a profitable biotech with label expansion momentum.

Revenue growth of 6.98% year-over-year is modest relative to the ROIC profile. The stock is down 16.1% from its high, and RBC Capital lowered the price target to $43. The setup here is value, not acceleration.

Insiders bought 80.5% of the time over the past six months, with net purchases of 2,157,881 shares. The insider score of 8.03 is the second-highest in this group. FDA progress on Cabometyx label expansion is driving incremental enthusiasm.

The shareholder yield of 8.49% is a function of buybacks, not dividends. Investors need to confirm capital allocation priorities remain aligned with organic growth.

4. Newmont Corporation (NEM)

Stock Pixie Score 7.4/10 | P/E 18.08 | Earnings Yield 5.53% | Revenue Growth +21.3% YoY

Newmont's 21.3% revenue growth and 36.9% ROIC reflect a company executing through a commodity upcycle. The earnings yield of 5.53% is 4.35% above the 10-year Treasury, and the EV/EBITDA of 9.17 is compressed for a producer with 53.2% gross margins.

The P/E of 18.08 is elevated for a miner, and the stock is down 14.5% from its high. Analysts have a $139.91 consensus target, implying 21.3% upside, but gold prices need to cooperate.

Insiders bought 2.2% of the time and sold 1.2% over six months, with net purchases of 30,406 shares. Recent Form 4 activity includes purchases by Hardy Francois on March 2, Mark Rodgers on March 3, and Natascha Viljoen on March 2. The insider score of 5.05 reflects cautious optimism.

The trade is a play on geopolitical tension and monetary policy, not operational leverage. If the Iran conflict de-escalates or the Fed signals tightening, the setup unwinds quickly.

5. Sunrun Inc. (RUN)

Stock Pixie Score 7.4/10 | P/E 7.45 | Earnings Yield 13.43% | Revenue Growth +45.1% YoY

Sunrun's 13.43% earnings yield and 45.1% revenue growth are the strongest combination in this group. The yield spread of 9.08% above the 10-year Treasury reflects a market pricing in existential risk, not a company posting 30.3% gross margins on accelerating top-line.

ROIC is negative (-1.05%), a function of heavy upfront capital deployment in solar installations. The EV/EBITDA of 31.22 is stretched, and the stock is down 43.3% from its high. Analysts see 73.1% upside to the $22.05 consensus target, but execution must validate the margin profile.

Insiders bought 20.8% of the time and sold 12.3% over six months, with net purchases of 597,970 shares. Todd Hammer filed three Form 4s in the past 30 days (March 4, 19, 26), signaling conviction. The insider score of 5.42 is solid.

Negative ROIC and elevated EV/EBITDA mean this is a bet on operational inflection, not current economics. Any revenue guide-down erases the thesis.