Utility Tuesday: 60% Revenue Growth Priced at 10x Earnings While Insiders Add $6M

This Week's Setup

The utility screen returns eight names with insider net buying and free cash flow yields above 4.7%, but the macro context has shifted: Fear & Greed at 66 marks the highest reading in three weeks, while S&P 500 CAPE holds at 38.9, pricing in expansion even as seven of these eight tickers sit 10%+ off 52-week highs.

Natural gas producers own the top four ranks with revenue growth between 49% and 60% and FCF yields that double the sector average, while First Solar appears as the sole non-hydrocarbon name at rank #7 with a 19% drawdown and 24% revenue growth.

The setup here is a portfolio of energy infrastructure priced for contraction inside a market priced for continued multiple expansion, with insiders adding $6M net across the group over six months and analysts pricing 8% to 24% upside into names trading at EV/EBITDA multiples between 3.5x and 13.2x.

Quick Scan

The 8 Names

1. CNX Resources Corporation (CNX)

EV/EBITDA: 3.48 | Interest coverage: 5.71x | 52w drawdown: -17%

CNX sits at rank #1 with a 10.5% FCF yield and 49% revenue growth, priced at 4.8x earnings and 1.1x book while generating 11.2% ROIC and 47% gross margin. The normalized P/E over 10 years sits at 16.4% earnings yield, implying the current multiple prices in structural compression that the revenue trajectory does not support.

Three insiders—Agbede, Lally-Green, and Thorndike—filed Form 4 buys on May 11, adding to the $5.3M net insider position built over six months across 438,000 shares. Short interest stands at 14.8% of float, the highest in this group, while analysts price 8% upside to $38.75 despite the valuation gap.

Net debt sits at 1.16x EBITDA with interest coverage at 5.7x, acceptable but not fortress-grade, and the 17% drawdown places CNX in the strong entry zone while peers trade closer to highs, signaling either relative weakness or misprice depending on whether the revenue acceleration holds.

2. EQT Corporation (EQT)

EV/EBITDA: 5.78 | Interest coverage: 7.79x | 52w drawdown: -17%

EQT holds rank #2 with 60% year-over-year revenue growth and an 8% FCF yield, generating 9.2% ROIC at 10.8x earnings while trading at 1.4x book and 17% off the 52-week high. The 1.2% dividend yield is incidental; the setup trades on cash generation at a 5.8x EV/EBITDA multiple that prices in no growth despite the reported revenue trajectory.

Insiders Roberts, Kiesel, and Glassford filed April 22 buys, contributing to $5.6M net insider accumulation over six months across 526,000 shares. Analyst consensus prices 24% upside to $70.56, the widest target spread in this group, while short interest sits at just 3.0% of float, implying the bearish positioning has unwound or never materialized.

The normalized 10-year earnings yield stands at 4.9%, well below the current 9.3% earnings yield, which means either the past decade underearned relative to today's margin structure or current profitability sits at cycle peak, a distinction that drives whether the 10.8x P/E is cheap or appropriately discounted.

3. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

EV/EBITDA: 8.74 | Interest coverage: 6.40x | 52w drawdown: -5%

Valero trades 5% off its 52-week high with a 6.9% FCF yield and 2.0% dividend yield, generating 9.5% ROIC at 18.0x earnings while revenue declined 5.5% year-over-year, marking the only name in this group with negative top-line growth. The refining margin story sits in the gross margin: 4.4%, compressed relative to integrated producers, but stable relative to VLO's 10-year normalized earnings yield of 1.1%.

Marie Ffolkes filed two Form 4 buys (May 7 and May 11) and Eric Mullins added on May 7, building $5.7M net insider accumulation over six months across 213,000 shares. Analyst targets sit at $255.21, just 3.5% above the current $246.48 price, signaling consensus expects mean reversion rather than expansion.

The EV/EBITDA multiple at 8.7x is the second-highest in this group after MPLX, and net debt/EBITDA at 0.63x combines with 18x earnings to price in stable margins, but the revenue decline and 4.4% gross margin leave little room for margin compression if crack spreads tighten further or throughput falls.

4. EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)

EV/EBITDA: 5.86 | Interest coverage: 28.07x | 52w drawdown: -12%

EOG generates 15.2% ROIC with 63% gross margin and 4.9% FCF yield, trading at 13.1x earnings and 12% off the 52-week high while revenue fell 3.4% year-over-year. The interest coverage at 28x and net debt/EBITDA at 0.35x mark the strongest balance sheet in this group, and the 3.1% dividend yield is covered 1.6x by the FCF yield, pricing in durability even if production plateaus.

Kerr, Leitzell, and Dugle filed May 4 buys, adding to $5.5M net insider accumulation over six months across 128,000 shares. Goldman Sachs raised the price target to $139 from $135 on May 12 while maintaining a neutral rating, pricing 4% upside, while consensus sits at $157.07, implying 18% upside if the bullish cohort proves correct.

The 10-year normalized earnings yield at 3.2% sits well below the current 7.6% earnings yield, and the revenue decline combined with flat 1-year price trend flags either peak-cycle earnings or a structural shift in capital allocation that the market has not yet priced, a binary that drives whether 13x is cheap or fair.

5. ConocoPhillips (COP)

EV/EBITDA: 6.67 | Interest coverage: 11.26x | 52w drawdown: -15%

COP trades 15% off the high with 5.1% FCF yield and 2.9% dividend yield, generating 13.5% ROIC at 19.6x earnings while revenue grew 7.7% year-over-year. The normalized 10-year earnings yield sits at 0.7%, signaling the current 5.1% yield prices in either a margin regime shift or peak-cycle earnings, and the 25% gross margin sits between EOG's 63% and VLO's 4.4%, reflecting integrated exposure rather than pure upstream.

Three Colombian insiders—Vatnick, Jaramillo, and Restrepo—filed April 23 Form 4s, contributing to $6.0M net insider accumulation over six months, the highest dollar total in this group, while insiders as a cohort show 118% buy-to-sell ratio over six months, the widest spread here. TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips, and QatarEnergy signed a May 12 memorandum for offshore Syria exploration, adding optionality outside the U.S. shale base.

Analyst consensus prices 22% upside to $140.59, the second-widest spread after EQT, but the 19.6x P/E and 6.7x EV/EBITDA already price in sustained profitability, and net debt/EBITDA at 0.73x leaves less balance-sheet optionality than EOG or FSLR if macro conditions compress margins faster than the revenue growth trajectory suggests.