ETFJune 5, 2026

ETFriday: Utilities and Energy Top the Screen While Gold Miners Sit 25% Below Peak

Top 5 Pixie Picks

This Week's Setup

Utilities and energy claim the top two Pixie Ranks as risk appetite stalls at neutral, with XLE and XLU both down 8–9% from 52-week highs and yielding above 3.7% while trading at 21× earnings.

Gold miners sit 25% below peak despite geopolitical noise, while Sweden's single-country basket posts a 16.2× P/E and near-high positioning with a 6.2% earnings yield.

The S&P 500 CAPE at 38.9 keeps long-duration assets under pressure; biotech and financials round out the screen in moderate drawdown zones with double-digit life annualized returns.

Quick Scan

#	Ticker	One-line thesis
1	XLE	Energy sector 9% off peak, 3.7% yield, ceasefire lifts crude
2	XLU	Utilities 8% drawdown, 4.4% yield, data center framework pending
3	GDX	Gold miners 25% below high, 5.9% earnings yield entry
4	GLD	Gold 19% off peak as dollar and yields rise post-jobs
5	VPU	Vanguard utilities 7% dip, 2.3% yield, 10% life return
6	EWD	Sweden 16× P/E, 6.2% earnings yield, 4% from high
7	IBB	Biotech 8% drawdown, 11% life annualized, healthcare rising premarket
8	XLF	Financials 9% off peak, 6% earnings yield, 12% life return

The 8 Names

1. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 6.6% | 52w drawdown: -8.6%

XLE trades at 20.9× earnings with a 3.7% dividend yield and a 4.8% earnings yield, producing a 32 basis point spread over the 10-year Treasury while sitting 8.6% below its 52-week high as Trump delays Iran strikes and ceasefire optimism lifts crude above pre-conflict levels.

Suncor Energy was downgraded to neutral after a strong rally, signaling profit-taking within the basket as energy stocks advanced pre-bell Friday despite broader market softness.

The 1.7 basis point one-year trend figure shows energy barely outpacing inflation, and the sector's valuation at 21× leaves little room for multiple expansion if crude stalls or demand forecasts weaken.

2. State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 10.2% | 52w drawdown: -8.2%

XLU sits 8.2% off its peak with a 4.4% dividend yield, a 21.2× P/E, and a 4.7% earnings yield that clears the 10-year Treasury by 27 basis points, offering income with double-digit life annualized returns while the sector trades near pre-Fed-pivot levels.

PJM's March 2027 data center framework decision is the catalyst investors are watching, as utilities position for AI-driven power demand alongside the $67 billion NextEra-Dominion merger that underscores sector consolidation and infrastructure investment.

The 6 basis point one-year trend signals utilities are treading water, and if the Fed pivots to inflation fighting under incoming Chair Warsh, rate-sensitive names could see another drawdown leg before stabilizing.

3. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 4.0% | 52w drawdown: -25.1%

GDX trades at 17× earnings with a 5.9% earnings yield, 142 basis points above the 10-year Treasury, and sits 25% below its 52-week high in strong entry territory despite gold itself down 19% and geopolitical tension still elevated.

The 4% life annualized return lags both GLD's 7.1% and broader equity benchmarks, and the 27 basis point one-year trend shows miners underperforming the metal they extract as operational costs and capital intensity weigh on returns.

Barron's framed gold stocks as in a bear market but made the case for buying; Rosenberg Research lifted exposure to gold and miners this week, while AAAU offers lower fees for those seeking direct metal exposure instead of dividend income from GDX.

4. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 7.1% | 52w drawdown: -19.2%

GLD is down 19% from its 52-week high and trades at 2.4× book value, delivering a 7.1% life annualized return while the 18 basis point one-year trend shows metal appreciation outpacing inflation despite the recent dollar and yield surge after May's unexpected job gains.

Gold fell as the dollar and yields rose post-jobs report, but earlier in the week it traded higher after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, illustrating the metal's dual sensitivity to geopolitical risk and real rate direction.

GLD carries no P/E, no FCF yield, and no dividend; if the Fed holds rates higher for longer under Warsh, real yields could compress gold's appeal further before the next leg up materializes.

5. Vanguard Utilities Index Fund ETF Shares (VPU)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 10.1% | 52w drawdown: -7.5%

VPU sits 7.5% below its peak with a 2.3% dividend yield, 21.1× P/E, and a 4.7% earnings yield that posts a 29 basis point spread to the 10-year Treasury, offering a 10.1% life annualized return for investors seeking income without the volatility spikes that plague growth sectors.

Three utility ETFs were highlighted this week as built for income without sleepless nights, and Zacks suggested utility ETFs as a buy as AI powers the NextEra-Dominion merger, positioning the sector for data center and grid modernization tailwinds.

The 6 basis point one-year trend matches XLU's stagnation, and VPU's 2.3% yield is roughly half of XLU's 4.4%, making it less attractive for yield-focused investors despite the Vanguard fee advantage.

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6. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 6.5% | 52w drawdown: -4.1%

EWD trades at 16.2× earnings with a 6.2% earnings yield, 172 basis points above the 10-year Treasury, and sits just 4.1% off its 52-week high with a 2.7% dividend yield while posting a 6.5% life annualized return in near-high territory.

The basket has zero recent news flow in the data, and single-country exposure to Sweden means currency risk, export sensitivity, and limited diversification if European growth decelerates or the krona weakens against the dollar.

7. iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 10.9% | 52w drawdown: -8.3%

IBB is down 8.3% from peak and trades at 21.9× earnings with a 4.6% earnings yield, delivering a 10.9% life annualized return while healthcare stocks rose premarket Friday and Thursday, signaling sector rotation into defensive growth.

The 11 basis point earnings yield spread to the 10-year Treasury is the thinnest on this screen, and the 0.2% dividend yield offers no income cushion if biotech names reset lower on trial failures or reimbursement pressure.

The 14 basis point one-year trend shows biotech barely keeping pace with inflation, and if the Fed's inflation fight under Warsh pushes rates higher, high-multiple life sciences names could see another drawdown leg before stabilizing.

8. State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 11.8% | 52w drawdown: -8.8%

XLF sits 8.8% below its 52-week high with a 16.6× P/E, 6% earnings yield, and 157 basis point spread to the 10-year Treasury, posting the highest life annualized return on this screen at 11.8% while financial stocks edged higher premarket Friday despite broader futures softness.

The one-year trend is flat at negative 0.0 basis points, signaling financials are dead money over the trailing twelve months despite the sector's historical rate sensitivity and net interest margin tailwinds from higher-for-longer policy.

XLF's 1.1% dividend yield is the second-lowest on this screen after IBB, and the 1.5× price-to-book ratio suggests limited asset value cushion if credit losses accelerate or loan demand weakens in a Fed pivot scenario.

What to Watch

PJM data center framework decision (March 2027): The grid operator's ruling will clarify how utilities charge and provision power for AI infrastructure, directly impacting XLU and VPU long-term earnings visibility.
NextEra-Dominion merger close (TBD 2026): The $67 billion deal is the largest utility transaction in years; integration timelines and regulatory approval will set the tone for sector consolidation and capital deployment.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC decision (likely Q3 2026): If Warsh pivots to inflation fighting as flagged in the Steve Liesman headline, rate-sensitive sectors like utilities, gold, and biotech will reprice before the meeting.
Gold miner earnings (Q2 2026): GDX names will report operational costs and hedging positions; if all-in sustaining costs rose faster than the metal price, the 25% drawdown could deepen before miners stabilize.

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