UtilityJuly 7, 2026

Utility Tuesday: Natural Gas Set to Overtake Oil by 2030, Insiders Buying the Drawdown

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This Week's Setup

Fear & Greed sits at 41—a neutral backdrop, neither euphoria nor panic—but the energy complex is trading as if the market forgot oil runs at 60% of U.S. energy consumption and natural gas is set to overtake it by 2030.

The S&P 500 CAPE at 38.9 tells you the broad market is priced for perfection; energy and utilities are not.

Drawdowns across the top eight names range from 4% to 25%, insider buy/sell ratios tilt long, and free cash flow yields sit 400 to 750 basis points above dividend yields—this is a sector generating cash it does not yet distribute.

Quick Scan

#	Ticker	One-line thesis
1	EQT	60% revenue growth, 9.8x P/E, 24% drawdown, insider adds
2	EOG	15% ROIC, 28x interest coverage, 13% drawdown, insider buying
3	COP	35% upside, 22% drawdown, 13% ROIC, Form 4 activity
4	VLO	6.3% FCF yield near all-time high, refiner margin resilience
5	BKR	31% upside, 23% drawdown, geothermal and subsea deals
6	MPLX	7.5% yield, 19% ROIC, 4% drawdown, midstream stability
7	CVX	25% upside, 20% drawdown, 4.1% yield, Guyana ramp
8	XOM	20% upside, 69x interest coverage, Nigeria deepwater bets

The 8 Names

1. EQT Corporation (EQT)

EV/EBITDA: 5.7 | Interest coverage: 7.8x | 52w drawdown: -24%

Revenue growth of 60% year-over-year, a 9.8x P/E, and an 8.8% free cash flow yield frame a company repricing for scale, not distress. The normalized P/E over 10 years sits at 5.7%, and the stock trades 35% below analyst consensus at $70. Natural gas is on track to surpass oil as the top U.S. energy source by 2030, and EQT is the largest producer in the Appalachian Basin—a structural tailwind that narrows the valuation gap.

Toby Z. Rice, John McCartney, and Daniel J. Rice IV all filed Form 4 buys in June and early July, adding 583,874 net shares over six months. The insider buy/sell ratio is 15% to 2%, and insiders deployed $5.66 million into the drawdown. Rice's filings on June 9 and July 6 signal conviction from the C-suite at a moment when the stock is trading 24% below its 52-week high.

A 0.74x net debt-to-EBITDA ratio and 5.7x EV/EBITDA leave little room for commodity price shocks if natural gas rolls over from here. Earnings on July 21 will clarify whether the revenue growth rate is structural or a one-quarter surge tied to spot pricing.

2. EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)

EV/EBITDA: 6.1 | Interest coverage: 28x | 52w drawdown: -13%

A 15% return on invested capital, 28x interest coverage, and a 63% gross margin tell you EOG is printing cash at a cycle-low valuation. The stock trades at 13x earnings with a 4.9% free cash flow yield, and revenue declined just 3% year-over-year despite oil price compression. The 10-year normalized earnings yield of 3.2% underscores quality; this is not a commodity lottery ticket.

Michael P. Donaldson, Ann D. Janssen, and Ezra Y. Yacob all filed insider buys in early July, adding to a six-month pattern that brought net insider shares to 138,766. The insider buy/sell ratio is 11% to 1%, and insiders deployed $5.50 million during a 13% drawdown. Donaldson's July 2 filing and Janssen's same-day add came two weeks before the August 4 earnings print—timing that matters.

Revenue growth turned negative for the first time in the dataset, down 3.4% year-over-year, and the 13% drawdown is the shallowest in the top eight. The setup here is attractive, but it lacks the margin of safety you see in names trading 20% to 25% off highs.

3. ConocoPhillips (COP)

EV/EBITDA: 6.8 | Interest coverage: 11.3x | 52w drawdown: -22%

A 13% ROIC, 5.6% free cash flow yield, and 35% implied upside to the $142.77 analyst target frame a major independent trading at a 22% drawdown with fortress-level interest coverage. The stock yields 3.2%, and the 10-year normalized earnings yield of 1.1% reflects a quality premium that survived the 2020 downturn.

Andres Felipe Mejia Cardona, Silvina Vatnick, and Sylvia Escovar Gomez all filed insider buys on June 22, contributing to 256,539 net shares added over six months. Insiders deployed $6.01 million, and the buy/sell ratio sits at 119% to 99%—roughly matched, but the dollar commitment tilts long. Mejia Cardona's timing, three weeks before earnings, signals no fear of a downside surprise on August 6.

The insider buy/sell ratio is nearly 1:1 by percentage, which means the net dollar commitment is the only signal of conviction. If you strip out the dollar amounts, the insider activity is ambiguous, and that matters in a 22% drawdown where you want unambiguous Form 4 support.

4. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

EV/EBITDA: 9.1 | Interest coverage: 6.4x | 52w drawdown: +2%

A 6.3% free cash flow yield and a 1.8% dividend yield mean Valero is generating $6.30 of cash for every $100 of market cap and paying out less than a third of it. The stock trades 2% above its 52-week high, but the 10-year normalized earnings yield of 0.6% reflects a refiner that has compounded through multiple commodity cycles. Revenue declined 5.5% year-over-year, yet the FCF yield expanded, which tells you capital discipline is real.

Eric A. Fisher filed Form 4 buys on June 18 and June 30, adding to a six-month pattern that brought net insider shares to 210,697. Insiders deployed $5.70 million, and the buy/sell ratio is 15% to 1%—the second-highest in the top eight. Fisher's two filings in June came one month before the July 30 earnings print, a signal worth noting when the stock is trading near an all-time high.

The analyst target of $259.47 implies 3% downside from the current $268.14 price, and the stock is the only name in the top eight trading above its 52-week range. A 9.1x EV/EBITDA multiple is elevated for a refiner, and if crack spreads compress into year-end, the valuation cushion disappears.

5. Baker Hughes Company (BKR)

EV/EBITDA: 13.0 | Interest coverage: 14x | 52w drawdown: -23%

A 12.8% ROIC, 4.7% free cash flow yield, and $71.52 analyst target imply 31% upside from a 23% drawdown. The 10-year normalized earnings yield of 1.3% reflects a company that survived the shale bust and emerged with a cleaner balance sheet—net debt-to-EBITDA is just 0.05x, effectively zero leverage. The stock trades at 17.4x earnings, in line with the industrials complex, but the free cash flow story is stronger.

Maria C. Borras, Ahmed Farhan Moghal, and Lorenzo Simonelli all filed insider buys in June, adding to a six-month pattern that brought net insider shares to 512,638. Insiders deployed $7.62 million, the highest dollar commitment in the top eight, and the buy/sell ratio is 130% to 78%—net long by a wide margin. Borras's July 2 filing and Simonelli's June 16 add came weeks before the July 26 earnings print, and Simonelli is the CEO.

Baker Hughes landed a subsea deal in Angola and a geothermal partnership in North America, both announced in the past 30 days. The geothermal play is strategic—energy transition exposure without abandoning the oil services core—and the Angola contract extends a foothold in deepwater production as West Africa ramps offshore drilling.

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6. MPLX LP (MPLX)

EV/EBITDA: 13.5 | Interest coverage: 5.8x | 52w drawdown: -4%

A 7.5% dividend yield, 19% ROIC, and 7.0% free cash flow yield frame a midstream MLP trading 4% off its high with fortress-level cash generation. The 10-year normalized earnings yield of 3.5% reflects a history of stability, and the 5.2% gross margin tells you this is a toll-road business, not a commodity bet. Revenue grew 5.2% year-over-year, and the stock pays you to wait.

Net debt-to-EBITDA is 4.1x, the highest leverage ratio in the top eight, and a 13.5x EV/EBITDA multiple leaves no margin for distribution cuts if volumes decline. The insider score is 5.00 with zero net shares added over six months—no Form 4 support in a sector where insider buying is the norm.

7. Chevron Corporation (CVX)

EV/EBITDA: 10.9 | Interest coverage: 17.2x | 52w drawdown: -20%

A 25% implied upside to the $216.09 analyst target, 4.1% dividend yield, and 20% drawdown frame a supermajor trading at a cycle-low valuation with a fortress balance sheet. The 10-year normalized earnings yield is negative 1.2%, reflecting the 2020 write-down cycle, but the current 4.8% free cash flow yield is above the dividend, meaning capital return can expand without balance sheet strain.

Chevron's Guyana offshore project received an upgrade in recent guidance, and the stock was removed from a major index—a technical headwind that created the 20% drawdown but does not change the cash flow story. The index exit forced passive fund liquidation, and the resulting price action is a liquidity event, not a fundamental deterioration.

Insiders sold 391,278 net shares over six months, and the buy/sell ratio is 1.5% to 1.9%—net selling by a slim margin. The insider score of 4.98 is the lowest in the top eight, and when you see net selling in a 20% drawdown, you have to ask what insiders know that the market does not.

8. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

EV/EBITDA: 11.9 | Interest coverage: 69x | 52w drawdown: -20%

A 69x interest coverage ratio, 11% ROIC, and 20% implied upside to the $169.91 analyst target tell you Exxon is a fortress balance sheet trading at a 20% drawdown. The stock yields 2.9%, and the 4.0% free cash flow yield is above the dividend, creating room for buybacks or distribution increases. Revenue declined 4.5% year-over-year, but the 10-year normalized earnings yield is negative 0.3%—a reflection of the 2020 cycle, not the current cash generation.

James R. Chapman and Leonard M. Fox both filed insider buys on July 1, adding to a six-month pattern that brought net insider shares to 32,250. Insiders deployed $5.04 million, and the buy/sell ratio is 1.5% to 0.6%—net long by percentage, but the absolute dollar commitment is modest for a $500 billion market cap. Chapman's and Fox's July 1 filings came 30 days before the July 31 earnings print.

Exxon and Shell are betting billions on Nigeria's deepwater comeback, with Exxon leading a consortium to develop offshore blocks in water depths exceeding 1,000 meters. The Nigeria play is a multi-year ramp, but the capital commitment signals confidence in West African production at a time when U.S. shale growth is slowing.

What to Watch

July 21: EQT earnings (est. EPS $0.45, est. revenue $1.9B). Revenue growth of 60% year-over-year needs confirmation; if the comp is sustainable, the 9.8x P/E is too low.
July 26: Baker Hughes earnings (est. EPS $0.48, est. revenue $6.5B). The Angola subsea deal and geothermal partnership will shape the forward guidance and clarify whether the energy transition exposure is revenue-accretive or a distraction.
July 30–31: Valero, Chevron, Exxon earnings. Three supermajors reporting in two days will reset the narrative on refiner margins, offshore ramp timing, and capital return priorities. Valero's FCF yield at 6.3% needs validation; Chevron's Guyana guidance will clarify the offshore story; Exxon's Nigeria bet needs a timeline.
August 4–6: EOG, MPLX, ConocoPhillips earnings. The insider buying at EOG and ConocoPhillips came weeks before these prints, and the timing matters if the guidance surprises to the upside.

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