UtilityJuly 28, 2026

Utility Tuesday: Natural Gas Compounds at 9.9× P/E While Insiders Buy the Fear

Top 5 Pixie Picks

This Week's Setup

Fear & Greed at 37 places us in fear territory, yet the energy complex is pricing in a world where natural gas overtakes oil by decade's end and data center power demand forces infrastructure rewrites before regulators catch up. EQT trades at 9.9× earnings with 60% revenue growth while sitting 23% below its 52-week high; EOG commands a 15% ROIC and a 6.1× EV/EBITDA multiple at a 7% drawdown.

The S&P 500 CAPE at 38.9 tells you the broad market is expensive; energy sits at single-digit to mid-teens P/E ratios while generating double-digit free cash flow yields and funding buybacks with balance sheets that survived the 2020 oil collapse.

Quick Scan

#	Ticker	One-line thesis
1	EQT	Natural gas at 9.9× P/E, 60% revenue growth, insider adds
2	EOG	15% ROIC, 6.1× EV/EBITDA, net debt 0.35× EBITDA
3	COP	14% drawdown, 13% ROIC, Silvina Vatnick buying July 27
4	VLO	5.5% FCF yield at 16% above 52-week high
5	MPLX	7.4% yield, 19% ROIC, near all-time high
6	CVX	11% drawdown, 4.3% FCF yield, earnings July 31
7	BKR	14% drawdown, 14× interest coverage, nearly net-cash
8	XOM	12% drawdown, 69× interest coverage, 2.7% dividend

The 8 Names

1. EQT Corporation (EQT)

EV/EBITDA: 5.73 | Interest coverage: 7.79× | 52w drawdown: -23.2%

EQT trades at 9.9× earnings and 5.7× EV/EBITDA while delivering 60% year-over-year revenue growth and an 8.7% free cash flow yield; the company generated a 9.2% ROIC in an industry where mid-single-digit returns are table stakes. The normalized 10-year P/E at 13.5× and a gross margin of 45.9% point to a business model that compounds through the cycle, not just rides spot prices.

CIK 0002041238 (Willis Martha), CIK 0002041088 (Curtis Barry), and CIK 0000923380 (John McCartney) filed insider transactions on July 22 and July 6; the board is putting capital to work at a 23% drawdown while analysts maintain a $70 price target against today's $52 print. Citigroup adjusted its target to $67 from $70 and kept its Buy rating, treating the 34% implied upside as a base case rather than a bull case.

Short interest sits at 3.4% of float; net debt stands at 0.74× EBITDA, leaving limited cushion if natural gas prices roll over before the data center build cycle materializes or if U.S. LNG export capacity underwhelms the 2027 projections.

2. EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)

EV/EBITDA: 6.14 | Interest coverage: 28.07× | 52w drawdown: -6.5%

EOG delivers a 15.2% ROIC and a 63.4% gross margin while trading at 14× earnings and 6.1× EV/EBITDA; free cash flow yield of 4.6% covers the 2.9% dividend with room for buybacks, and net debt at 0.35× EBITDA makes this one of the cleanest balance sheets in the upstream sector. The company generated $8.0 billion in estimated revenue last quarter while maintaining 28× interest coverage, a figure that renders the debt stack irrelevant in any scenario short of a multi-year oil collapse.

Revenue declined 3.4% year-over-year, and the 10-year normalized earnings yield of 2.5% flags a business where cyclical peaks matter more than steady compounding; the stock sits only 7% below its 52-week high, limiting entry margin if oil prices stall before earnings on August 4. Goldman Sachs cut its price target to $127 from $129 and holds a Neutral rating, signaling that the risk-reward at $142 requires a commodity view, not just a quality thesis.

CIK 0001376006 (Michael P. Donaldson), CIK 0001501126 (Ann D. Janssen), and CIK 0001724997 (Ezra Y. Yacob) sold shares on July 2; insider selling at 100% of transactions over six months with net outflows of 14,343 shares runs counter to the single-digit drawdown setup. Susquehanna raised its price target to $170 from $166 and kept a Positive rating, embedding 20% upside into the August 4 earnings print.

3. ConocoPhillips (COP)

EV/EBITDA: 6.76 | Interest coverage: 11.26× | 52w drawdown: -14.0%

ConocoPhillips trades at 6.8× EV/EBITDA and 19.8× P/E with a 5.1% free cash flow yield and 13.5% ROIC; the company grew revenue 7.7% year-over-year and maintains net debt at 0.73× EBITDA, positioning it for acquisitions or accelerated buybacks if crude oil holds above $70 through Q3. The 10-year normalized earnings yield of 0.4% and a 25.1% gross margin reveal an asset base optimized for scale over margin, making this a bet on volume growth and operational leverage.

CIK 0002120729 (Silvina Vatnick) filed three insider transactions on July 27 and July 10; the executive is buying at a 14% drawdown with analysts modeling $142.77 as a base case price target, implying 22% upside before the August 6 earnings release. The setup here is a board-level insider adding exposure ahead of Q2 results while short interest sits at 2.3% of float, removing technical pressure if the print beats consensus EPS of $2.89.

Trump administration headlines around potential Iran negotiations sent oil prices sliding on July 28; any supply agreement that adds Iranian barrels to the global market would compress the premium ConocoPhillips commands for its diversified production footprint and lengthen the payback period on its acquisition pipeline.

4. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

EV/EBITDA: 9.11 | Interest coverage: 6.40× | 52w drawdown: +15.9%

Valero trades 16% above its 52-week high while delivering a 5.5% free cash flow yield and maintaining a 9.5% ROIC; the company generated $38.4 billion in estimated quarterly revenue and carries net debt at 0.63× EBITDA, leaving it positioned to return capital even if refining margins compress through the second half. The 4.4% gross margin and 22.3× P/E signal a business where operational efficiency and throughput volume drive value, not commodity leverage.

Revenue declined 5.5% year-over-year, and the 10-year normalized earnings yield of -0.2% flags a cyclical model where trough periods erase years of cash generation; analysts price the stock at $259, 15% below today's $306 print, indicating the market has front-run the July 30 earnings beat and priced in Q2 margin expansion before the release. The stock sits near an all-time high, offering zero drawdown cushion if refining spreads roll over or if Q3 guidance disappoints.

CIK 0002043747 (Eric A. Fisher) filed an insider transaction on June 30; limited insider activity at a 16% premium to the 52-week high suggests insiders view the current price as fair value rather than a compelling entry. The setup here is a company that has already delivered the catalyst, leaving the August earnings print as a confirmation rather than a repricing event.

5. MPLX LP (MPLX)

EV/EBITDA: 13.45 | Interest coverage: 5.82× | 52w drawdown: -2.4%

MPLX delivers a 7.4% dividend yield backed by a 6.9% free cash flow yield and a 19.2% ROIC, the highest in this week's screen; the partnership grew revenue 5.2% year-over-year while maintaining a 43.6% gross margin, characteristics that separate infrastructure toll-takers from commodity-exposed producers. The 10-year normalized earnings yield of 3.3% and 12.7× P/E embed stable midstream economics into a distribution model designed for total return, not just income.

Net debt sits at 4.1× EBITDA, the highest leverage ratio on this screen and a structural risk if interest rates hold elevated through 2027 or if crude oil volumes decline before natural gas infrastructure scales to replace the throughput. EV/EBITDA at 13.5× and interest coverage at 5.8× leave limited cushion for margin compression, and the stock trades 2.4% below its 52-week high, offering no entry discount despite the refinancing risk embedded in the capital structure.

Short interest at 1.8% of float removes technical pressure, but the August 4 earnings print will clarify whether the partnership can grow distributable cash flow while servicing debt, or whether the 7.4% yield is compensation for a balance sheet that constrains growth optionality through the next cycle.

Only Pro and Free Trial readers get meta-analysis of the top 5 ranked Utility stocks.

6. Chevron Corporation (CVX

EV/EBITDA: 10.90 | Interest coverage: 17.22× | 52w drawdown: -10.6%

Chevron trades at 10.9× EV/EBITDA with a 4.3% free cash flow yield and a 3.7% dividend yield backed by 17.2× interest coverage; the company maintains a 7.3% ROIC and net debt at 1.06× EBITDA, positioning it to fund both shareholder returns and upstream capital allocation without balance sheet strain. The 10-year normalized earnings yield of -1.7% and 30.4% gross margin point to a business where integrated refining and chemicals operations smooth commodity volatility, making this a lower-beta energy play.

Revenue declined 4.6% year-over-year, and insiders sold 823,607 net shares over six months with 100% of transactions on the sell side; the disconnect between insider selling at a 10.6% drawdown and analyst price targets at $216 suggests insiders view the current setup as expensive relative to the commodity outlook. BofA downgraded Chevron to Neutral from Buy and raised its price target to $227 from $210, embedding the July 31 earnings print into a hold thesis rather than an accumulation case.

The July 31 earnings release will clarify whether Chevron can grow free cash flow in a flat revenue environment, or whether the integrated model is masking upstream pressure that will surface in Q3 guidance; consensus expects $5.57 EPS on $61.2 billion in revenue, setting a high bar for upside surprise in a commodity environment where Iran negotiations are resurfacing.

7. Baker Hughes Company (BKR

EV/EBITDA: 13.04 | Interest coverage: 13.96× | 52w drawdown: -13.9%

Baker Hughes trades at 13× EV/EBITDA with a 4.2% free cash flow yield and a 12.8% ROIC; the company maintains net debt at 0.048× EBITDA, functionally net-cash, and generated 14× interest coverage while growing its industrial energy transition segment through Q2. The 10-year normalized earnings yield of 0.5% and 23.6% gross margin embed a services model where technology licensing and equipment sales diversify revenue beyond drilling activity, positioning the company for the energy transition without abandoning upstream exposure.

CIK 0001588503 (Maria C. Borras) filed an insider transaction on July 2; board-level activity at a 13.9% drawdown aligns with analyst price targets at $71.52, implying 18% upside from today's $60.65 print. Susquehanna raised its price target to $72 from $70 and Piper Sandler lifted its target to $73 from $71, both maintaining Overweight and Positive ratings; the setup here is a nearly debt-free oilfield services company trading at a mid-teens discount to its 52-week high while insiders add exposure ahead of the next upcycle.

Revenue declined 0.3% year-over-year, and short interest sits at 2.3% of float; any slowdown in North American drilling activity or a delay in international LNG project sanctions would compress equipment demand before the energy transition tailwind offsets the upstream drag, leaving the stock vulnerable to a repricing if Q3 order intake disappoints.

8. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

EV/EBITDA: 11.87 | Interest coverage: 69.44× | 52w drawdown: -12.1%

Exxon trades at 11.9× EV/EBITDA with a 3.7% free cash flow yield and a 2.7% dividend yield backed by 69× interest coverage, the highest on this screen; the company maintains an 11.1% ROIC and net debt at 0.70× EBITDA, positioning it to fund both upstream capital allocation and shareholder returns without material financial risk. The 10-year normalized earnings yield of -0.8% and 22.0% gross margin embed an integrated model where chemicals and refining stabilize cash flow, making this a defensive energy play in an environment where commodity prices drive sector volatility.

Revenue declined 4.5% year-over-year, and insiders sold 11,460 net shares over six months with 100% of transactions on the sell side; CIK 0001755965 (James R. Chapman) and CIK 0001847774 (Leonard M. Fox) filed sales on July 1, signaling insiders view the 12% drawdown as an exit opportunity rather than an accumulation point. BofA downgraded Exxon to Neutral from Buy and adjusted its price target to $158 from $154, removing the buy rating while the stock trades at $155 and analysts model $169.91 as a base case.

The July 31 earnings release lands one day after Chevron reports, setting up a back-to-back read on integrated oil fundamentals and whether the supermajors can grow free cash flow in a flat revenue environment; consensus expects $3.68 EPS on $98.4 billion in revenue, a print that will either validate the insider selling or reveal mispricing at a 12% drawdown.

What to Watch

July 30: Valero Energy reports Q2 earnings (est. EPS $10.13, revenue $38.4B); refining margins and Q3 guidance will clarify whether the stock's 16% premium to its 52-week high is sustainable or if the market has front-run the print.
July 31: Chevron and Exxon Mobil report earnings one day apart; back-to-back reads on integrated oil will frame whether the supermajors can grow cash flow in a flat revenue environment or if insider selling at both names flags tougher comps ahead.
August 4: EOG Resources and MPLX LP report earnings; EOG's revenue guidance and MPLX's distributable cash flow growth will determine whether the upstream producer and midstream partnership can sustain shareholder returns while managing leverage.
August 6: ConocoPhillips reports Q2 results; insider buying from Silvina Vatnick ahead of the print suggests board-level confidence in a beat, but any miss on volume growth or capex guidance would invalidate the 22% implied upside embedded in analyst targets.

Go Deeper

The utility screener surfaces energy infrastructure and power generation companies with durable cash flows, stable dividends, and balance sheets built to weather commodity cycles.

Check out the full screener →

Pro-only analytics

Named tickers from this article open in the app with Pro or an active trial.

Stock Pixie Pro

See the full utility screen — every pick, every metric, every day.

The app shows up to 10 rows on Free; the top 5 by Pixie rank keep ticker, name, and recent close private. Posts may name the top 5 for context. Pro and trial show every row on the screener, full identifiers, and the rest of Pro.

Start your free trial →

Or start with the free Market Brief Digest

Where the market stands before the open, in plain language, every trading day. No account needed.

About the Stock Pixie Score

The Stock Pixie Score is a 0–10 composite that measures how well a stock matches the criteria for that screen. Scores reflect the strength of quantitative signals across valuation, quality, and trend factors weighted for the specific screener. A higher score means stronger alignment; above 8 indicates the algorithm finds the setup compelling across most of the metrics it tracks. It is a filter, not a forecast.

The Fine Print

Stock Pixie is not a registered investment adviser and does not offer financial advice. It is a stock screening platform that scores and ranks stocks using quantitative signals. You are responsible for your own research and investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.