ETFAugust 14, 2026

ETFriday: Utilities Own Both Ends While Gold Sits 25% Below Peak

Top 5 Pixie Picks

This Week's Setup

Utilities claim both the top Pixie Rank and fourth spot, anchoring the screen at earnings yields near 4.7 percent while drawdowns sit in the 7–8 percent zone, the first time defensive infrastructure has bookended the leaderboard since March.

Emerging markets take second and seventh with earnings yields pushing above 5 percent and drawdowns barely over 5–8 percent, a compression that mirrors the 66 Fear & Greed reading and the S&P 500 CAPE at 38.9.

Energy sits at rank three with a 4.8 percent earnings yield and just a 4 percent drawdown, trading near its 52-week high while gold miners languish at rank six with a 25 percent drawdown despite a 5.9 percent earnings yield.

Quick Scan

#	Ticker	One-line thesis
1	XLU	Defensive yield at 4.4% with 8% drawdown
2	FRDM	Emerging valuations at 4.8% earnings yield, 17% lifetime growth
3	XLE	Energy earnings yield near 5% at 52-week highs
4	EWD	Sweden trades at 6.2% earnings yield, 4% drawdown
5	VPU	Vanguard utilities match XLU yield, tighter drawdown
6	GDX	Gold miners at 25% drawdown, 5.9% earnings yield
7	AVEM	Avantis emerging markets hit 6% earnings yield
8	EWH	Hong Kong at 5.5% earnings yield, 9% off peak

The 8 Names

1. State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 10.45% | 52w drawdown: -7.70%

The earnings yield sits at 4.7 percent with a dividend yield of 4.4 percent, the widest income cushion in the utilities sector since the first quarter. The yield spread over the 10-year Treasury is just 0.08 percent, but the low beta and regulated cash flows make this a parking lot for capital rotating out of stretched growth names.

The P/E of 21.2 sits well above the historical utility average of 16–18, signaling that defensive demand has compressed the valuation; if rates rise or growth re-accelerates, this premium evaporates quickly. The P/B ratio of 0.69 flags book value erosion from legacy infrastructure or asset write-downs that won't reverse on a dividend thesis alone.

Zacks coverage this week highlighted FirstEnergy and Public Service Enterprise analyst upgrades, both core XLU holdings, as rate case approvals and transmission capex cycles accelerate through 2027.

2. Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 17.40% | 52w drawdown: -7.96%

The earnings yield of 4.8 percent with an 8 percent drawdown puts this at the top of the emerging-market basket for valuation without the governance baggage that weighs on broader MSCI EM indexes. The fund screens out state-owned enterprises and autocratic regimes, leaving a concentrated basket of Taiwan, South Korea, and India equities that trade at a 15 percent discount to their MSCI EM peers on normalized P/E.

The yield spread over the 10-year Treasury is 0.15 percent, the tightest in this cohort, but the 1-year trend of 0.23 percent signals that earnings revisions are catching up to price momentum. Life annualized return of 17.4 percent beats every other fund on the screen except AVEM, and the fund launched only in 2020, so the runway from here is structural rather than cyclical.

Barron's reported this week that the age of free ETF trades is ending as brokers reprice zero-commission models, a headwind for thematic funds like FRDM that rely on retail flow; iShares funds are crushing the S&P 500 by 30 points this year, and FRDM is riding that same wave.

3. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 6.92% | 52w drawdown: -4.10%

The earnings yield of 4.8 percent at a 4 percent drawdown is the cleanest risk-reward in the energy basket, with a dividend yield of 3.6 percent covering most of the downside if oil consolidates. The yield spread over the 10-year Treasury is 0.14 percent, and the 1-year trend of 0.16 percent shows that earnings are growing faster than the price, a rare signal in a sector that typically runs hot on commodity spikes and cold on oversupply.

The life annualized return of 6.9 percent is the lowest on the screen, reflecting the volatility drag from oil cycles and the structural headwind from the energy transition; this is a tactical position, not a long-duration holding. The P/E of 20.9 sits above the sector's historical average of 12–15, meaning the market is pricing in sustained $80–90 WTI, a bet that has broken in both directions over the past decade.

MT Newswires flagged pre-bell strength in energy stocks Friday as retail sales data beat estimates, signaling consumption resilience that supports refining margins and downstream demand through the fall.

4. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 7.75% | 52w drawdown: -4.35%

The earnings yield of 6.2 percent at a 4 percent drawdown is the highest risk-adjusted yield in the developed-market sleeve, with a P/E of 16.2 that trades at a 20 percent discount to the S&P 500 on normalized earnings. The yield spread over the 10-year Treasury is 1.5 percent, the widest in the European cohort, and the 1-year trend of 0.05 percent shows earnings stability even as the krona has weakened against the dollar.

Sweden's industrial base is concentrated in automation, green energy infrastructure, and mining equipment, sectors that benefit from the AI capex cycle and the European manufacturing rebound. The P/B of 1.10 sits near book value, signaling that the market is pricing in flat ROE rather than the export-driven margin expansion that typically follows krona weakness.

The dividend yield of 2.7 percent is the lowest in the income-oriented segment, and the 1-year trend of 0.05 percent flags that earnings growth is decelerating; if European PMIs roll over, this yield advantage disappears as companies cut capex and buybacks dry up.

5. Vanguard Utilities Index Fund ETF Shares (VPU)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 10.35% | 52w drawdown: -7.26%

The earnings yield of 4.7 percent with a dividend yield of 2.3 percent gives this the same valuation profile as XLU but with a tighter drawdown at 7.3 percent, reflecting Vanguard's broader utility basket that includes water, gas, and renewable transmission operators. The yield spread over the 10-year Treasury is 0.10 percent, and the 1-year trend of 0.03 percent shows that regulated rate increases are offsetting the bond-like price sensitivity that typically weighs on utilities when yields rise.

24/7 Wall St. highlighted VPU this week as a Social Security replacement strategy for retirees claiming at 62 and working part-time, citing the 2.3 percent yield and the defensive return profile that avoids the $1-for-$2 earnings test clawback. Zacks coverage asked whether VPU is a buy as HALO sectors gain traction, a reference to healthcare, AI, luxury, and other resilient sectors that often pair with utilities in low-volatility portfolios.

The P/E of 21.1 matches XLU at the high end of the valuation band, and the P/B of 1.84 sits well above book value, meaning investors are paying a premium for the defensive characteristics; if the fear trade reverses, this premium compresses faster than the dividend can offset.

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6. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 3.70% | 52w drawdown: -24.83%

The 25 percent drawdown is the deepest on the screen, and the life annualized return of 3.7 percent is the lowest in the basket, reflecting the structural drag from high-cost mines, geopolitical risk in South Africa and Russia, and the volatility whipsaw that makes gold miners a leveraged bet on the metal rather than a hedge. The earnings yield of 5.9 percent looks attractive on paper, but the P/E of 17.0 is artificially compressed by cyclical peak earnings that won't repeat if gold consolidates below $2,400.

The yield spread over the 10-year Treasury is 1.2 percent, and the 1-year trend of 0.08 percent shows that earnings are grinding higher even as the price has sold off, a signal that cost deflation and operational leverage are finally showing up in the income statement. If gold breaks above $2,600, the operating leverage in this basket will drive triple-digit earnings growth, but that thesis requires inflation re-acceleration or a dollar crisis.

Barchart reported this week that if you want more upside from gold, GDX offers a different kind of leverage than SLV, with equity beta to the metal running 2–3x depending on the cost curve; the setup here is a tactical swing trade, not a long-duration inflation hedge.

7. Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF (AVEM)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 12.46% | 52w drawdown: -5.37%

The earnings yield of 6.1 percent with a 5 percent drawdown is the best risk-adjusted entry in the emerging-market sleeve, and the life annualized return of 12.5 percent beats FRDM by 480 basis points on a longer track record. The yield spread over the 10-year Treasury is 1.4 percent, the second-widest on the screen, and the P/E of 16.5 sits at a 25 percent discount to the S&P 500, meaning the market is pricing in zero multiple expansion even as earnings growth runs at mid-teens.

PR Newswire reported this week that Avantis reached $150 billion in assets under management in less than seven years, with AVEM as the flagship emerging-markets vehicle; the fund uses factor tilts toward profitability and value rather than market-cap weighting, a strategy that outperforms in recovery cycles but lags in momentum-driven bull runs. Zacks highlighted that ETFs are primed for gains on Nvidia's $150 billion AI spending vow in Taiwan, a direct tailwind for AVEM's Taiwan and South Korea tech holdings.

The 1-year trend of 0.13 percent is the lowest in the emerging-market cohort, signaling that earnings momentum is decelerating; if China's property sector deteriorates further or India's capex cycle stalls, this factor tilt will amplify the downside rather than cushion it.

8. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

3y annualized return: n/a | Life annualized return: 4.56% | 52w drawdown: -8.82%

The earnings yield of 5.5 percent at a 9 percent drawdown offers the cheapest entry into Greater China equity exposure without mainland A-share volatility, with a P/E of 18.2 that trades at a 40 percent discount to the Hang Seng Tech Index on normalized earnings. The yield spread over the 10-year Treasury is 0.87 percent, and the dividend yield of 2.7 percent covers most of the downside if the property sector stabilizes without requiring a growth rebound.

The life annualized return of 4.6 percent is the second-lowest on the screen, reflecting the structural overhang from Hong Kong's loss of financial hub status, the emigration wave post-2020, and the mainland's regulatory crackdown on tech and education sectors. The P/B of 0.87 sits below book value, signaling that the market expects return on equity to compress further as mainland policy shifts drain capital and talent out of the city.

Moby reported this week that Shein's sobering valuation asks if an IPO is necessary, a signal that Hong Kong's listing pipeline is drying up as companies choose New York or skip public markets entirely; EWH's constituent base is shrinking, and the replacement names are lower-quality state-owned enterprises rather than the innovative tech firms that drove the last cycle.

What to Watch

• FOMC minutes August 20: If the committee signals a September pause after two consecutive cuts, utilities and defensive sectors will reprice lower as the yield curve steepens and growth re-accelerates.

• China PMI August 31: Any print above 50 will lift FRDM, AVEM, and EWH as the market reprices emerging-market earnings estimates; below 48 confirms the property-sector drag is spreading to manufacturing.

• Gold and dollar correlation through Labor Day: If gold breaks above $2,600 while the dollar weakens, GDX will gap higher on operating leverage; if both consolidate, the 25 percent drawdown extends to 30.

• European PMI revision August 23: Sweden and utilities will track manufacturing activity; any upward revision above 49 confirms the industrial rebound and validates EWD's 6.2 percent earnings yield.

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